We may be able to give others the ‘flu, even before we know we have it – according to a new study. As such, today’s news about the infectivity of the ‘flu virus before symptoms appear, adds force to the results of Innogen’s study of the value of a ‘flu vaccine[1].
The main plank of UK contingency planning to prevent the
spread of infection in the event of a severe ‘flu pandemic is that those
infected should stay away from contact with others – if those infected can
spread infection before showing symptoms, the effectiveness of this approach
will be seriously undermined.
Working with economists, using a general equilibrium model
of the UK economy, our paper focused on the impact of the case fatality rate on
human behaviour, predicting that in the event of a high case fatality rate
(around 2.5-5%) people would begin to stay away from work – not because they
were sick, but because they were afraid of getting sick (precautionary
absenteeism) – with major consequent impacts on the UK economy.
Under these circumstances, the value of a vaccine to the
economy would rest on its influence on people’s behaviour by making them feel
safer, more than its value in preventing infection. Given the unpredictability,
but inevitability, of a ‘flu pandemic at some time in the future, we saw this
as a factor justifying investment in the development of vaccines, both in the
underlying science and technology and in mechanisms to deliver faster
regulatory approval in an emergency.
[1]
Smith R., Keogh-Brown, M, Barnett, T. and Tait, J. (2009). The Economy-Wide
Impact of Pandemic Influenza on the UK : a computable general
equilibrium modelling experiment. BMJ; 339:
b4571.
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